Michael Janzen

If Israel believes the U.S. Government, who just assured Israel nuclear Iran not imminent, we may have just postponed the initiation of what looks like could become World War III.

It’s logical to assume that WWIII will happen someday, although there’s no telling what shape it will take. I suspect global nuclear war is no longer a likely possibility but I can definitely see someone setting off some smaller nukes. The hot spot this time is the Middle East, but this time the bigger problem is that it’s looking like everyone is taking sides.

• China, Russia, et al, want to trade with Iran have been essentially disregarding U.S. Sanctions against Iran.
• The U.S., Israel, the European Union, et al, want to block Iran from doing lots of things, like obtaining nuclear weapons.

Ignore the arguments for a moment and focus on the bigger problem… everyone is taking sides. This is a recipe for WWIII and with such a concentration of American military forces surrounding Iran, we should all be concerned that our foreign policies could be leading us toward war. A big war.

But for now it looks like the U.S. may be able to leverage a little bit of influence over Israel. I sure hope so because if Israel launches an attack against Iran and Iran fires back, we’re bound to be pulled into the mess, especially if China and Russia choose to jump in too.

Update: Iran begins loading fuel into their nuclear power plant.

A powder keg unlike anything we’ve seen in recent history is forming in the Middle East.

• With Russia’s help, Iran will turn-on their first nuclear reactor on August 21st (AFP and AlJazerra).
• Israel may attack to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons.
• Iran has sworn to respond it attacked (VOA).
• The American military has encircled Iran (U.S. occupation of Iraq and Afganistan).
• The U.S. Navy is harassing the Chinese (Reuters).
• Russia bans grain exports (BBC).
• The Chinese are getting ready for a fight (The Washington Times).
• China is selling off U.S. Government Bonds (Business Insider).

I know the fear mongers in the mass media are all over this, but when you cut through the noise it sure looks like a powder keg rocking in the back of and old horse-drawn wagon to me too. I just hope some dumb-ass doesn’t light a match.

I’m relieved that the natural gas conflit is being resolved. But now that Europe and the markets have had a taste of the danger so much reliance on Russian gas brings… it looks like the Russians are going to be the ones paying. The market value of gas recently dropped and Europe is looking for alternative energy sources. It’s an interesting lesson… if you hold a trump card… sometimes it’s wiser to hold it and not play it… at least if you want to win the game… and not just one hand. Here’s the article that triggered that comment.

The pressure has just been turned up to get off Russian natural gas and find alternative sources of energy. I’m sure everyone in Europe has seen the light now. Those of us in North America should take heed and take a look at our own dangerously reliant position on foreign energy too. It seems far to dangerous to be so dependent on outside fuel. It seems like this should be our number one national security focus. Can you imagine the additional effect on our fragile economy if fossil fuel supplies were cut? Here’s a news story on the latest development in Europe and how they are moving to other energy sources.

I was amazed to see this in the news this morning… “Gas emergency declared across Europe.” Does Russia think turning off the gas supply to Europe is going to help get the folks in the Ukraine to pay their bills? Sounds like it… but is it worth some people in Europe freezing to death!? The three big take-aways for me on this are:

1. Russia is taking a very aggressive posture with the rest of the world which just seems incredibly dangerous, and…
2. This another example of how the economic trouble is going to escalate real trouble, and…
3. Each of us should take this moment to remember that foreign dependence on anything as critical as fuel to heat your home is a very bad position to be in. Unfortunately we’re all in the same boat. My heart goes out to those in the cold in Europe right now. I hope this gets resolved as quickly as possible.

I don’t know about you… but I’m thinking about getitng ready to hang on tight. I think we’re really in for a bumpy ride.