Earlier this year, President Obama likened the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria to a junior varsity basketball squad, a group that posed little of the threat once presented by Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda.
But on Thursday, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel called ISIS an “imminent threat to every interest we have,” adding, “This is beyond anything that we’ve seen.” – NYTimes.com
While many will waste the days away arguing whether this lack of foresight for The Islamic State’s potential is due to incompetence or bad intelligence, the rest of use should look forward to the potential outcome and be ready to respond.
I know I sound like a broken record, but this all seems so simple. Ignore the noise, hear the volume increasing and listen for the crescendo. This is different than the days leading up to 9/11. This time an attack on U.S. soil won’t be a surprise.
All the information we have about The Islamic State tells us they are vicious, capable, and truly hate Americans. Sure they hate our government and military – but they also hate you and me. Maybe its our apparent inability to control the globalists in charge, or maybe its our lack or morals (by their measure, not mine). Whatever the case, it doesn’t matter. These folks are highly motivated and resourceful and have us in their sights.
Sure we could fight them – but isn’t that what the powers-that-be want, another war?
To prepare for a tornado you need to…? To prepare for an earthquake you need to…? To prepare for a blackout you need to…? To prepare for a flood you need to…? To prepare for a home invasion you need to…?
The answer to any questions along these lines is the same. You need to accept that it is possible, learn about the risks, and build hedges against them.
An Attack on America
So what would a wide-spread coordinated attack on America look like? No telling what they’ve got planned but if they are as smart as we think, they are they’d probably want to:
- Wear as much black clothing as possible. Bad guys wear black.
- Strike as much fear in us as possible with as few resources as possible.
- Strike fast, as in a blitzkrieg, but with their typical guerrilla/kamikaze flair.
- Damage key infrastructure that’s difficult to repair quickly.
- Diversify their resources geographically to prevent their ideology being wiped-out by counter-strikes.
- Hold some assets in reserve for striking-back when our defenses are weakened.
- Hope that our enemies take advantage of our weakened state.
- Turn us on ourselves.
In other words, modern plays from The Art of War.
Examples of Potential Islamic State Strikes
I’m gleaning these from memes established by the main stream media and our government. These are all ideas that have been put forth in the past by others.
- Strikes on bridges. After 9/11 the public openly learned about this Achilles’ heel. Our reliance on movement and a supply chain that relies on just-in-time delivery drives our economy.
- Strikes on our power grid. We rely heavily on our grid, and it has key pinch points. Without power we can loose communication, home security, air conditioning, heating, health services, emergency services, commerce, convenience, and comfort.
- Strikes on oil refineries and pipelines. A reduction in supply causes cost to rise. Anything that relies on fossil fuels would be disrupted.
- Contamination of water supplies. Nuf sed.
- Strikes on dams. We’ve already seen that this terrorist group knows all about dams, as they’ve already tried to destroy one in Iraq. Dams pose a short-term threat to the people living downstream and a long-term threat to the people who rely on the dam for electricity and water.
- Bombings, shootings, and general chaos. I put this second-to-last because it does the least physical damage with more psychological damage in the short-term. It also uses more resources/terrorists for the level of impact.
- A nuclear blast or dirty bomb. I leave this last on the list due to barriers of cost and transportation associated with nuclear material (both fissionable and low-grade). These tools have been with us for a very long time, and nuclear material has proliferated around the globe, so this is on the table. As a tool of terror and destruction, it’s the most effective – especially for the American public that mistakenly thinks nuclear war is unsurvivable.
I don’t think we can rely on our government to do anything more than they already are to protect the status quo. So I think we must assume that the status quo may change, and when it does it may change rapidly.
Avoid Giving into Fear
The fear the government is selling looks motivated by a desire to go back to war in the Middle East. Ironically its our military actions in the Middle East, and the guns & money we’ve poured in there, that directly or indirectly gave birth to The Islamic State.
No matter the case, its looking more and more like no matter what we do, the bloody part of World War III is about to kick-off. Some say it already has begun with the currency & proxy wars. I tend to agree. But I’m also as optimistic as I am practical.
If the American public were to wake-up now, like many apparently have by watching the militarized police state of Missouri in action on TV, we may be able to make enough noise to avert a war. There are a few truths I think we’d need to accept:
- The value of the dollar is at significant risk. As the BRICS rise and OPEC considers moving away from the Petrodollar, we move closer to a day that the dollar will need another basis of measure. During that transition America would experience hard financial times. This also indirectly means that the western power structures of the world would need to accept this reality and embrace a changing world that includes the east.
- Fossil fuels are nearing an end of cost effectiveness. Fracking has given the USA a lease on life – in terms of energy independence, albeit with a potentially dangerous cost legacy. We would need to seize the moment and make the hard transition from oil to renewables now, before we really run out of gas.
- Remove ourselves from the business of other nations. Until we do this we will be a direct threat to their existence. If we lead by example, others will follow. If we wage war, so will others. If we evolve, people will follow.
No politician wants to take the fall for these hard decisions. Some think it’s impossible – hence the likely reason we live in a world of artificial stimulus and market manipulation. A few key people clearly think war is the only way out of this mess.
So what we need is a real leader that has the yarbles to face the truth and bring the American public through these hard changes. Since that’s the hard reality the last thing we can do is hope for the best while preparing for that possible outcome.