Michael Janzen

There is a lot of economic doom & gloom in the press lately, enough to make you crazy. For example, take this article titled, Is this finally the economic collapse? written by Keith R. McCullough, the CEO of Hedgeye. McCullough suggests that our 90% debt to GDP ratio is so high that real economic collapse is closer than ever.

Some somewhat extreme watchdogs have also been keeping an eye on some of the usual and unusual economic indicators and have summed up 15 Economic Statistics That Just Keep Getting Worse.

Another article caught my eye; a Bloomberg opinion story recently reported that the, U.S. Is Bankrupt and We Don’t Even Know It.

I’m not sure what to believe and don’t take any of this at face value; but it does bring up some interesting points and logical conclusions.

• If we the people can’t slow our run-away government spending, we can expect to see a big jump in taxation since someone is going to have to pay all this money back.
• I can’t imagine any politician voluntarily choosing to make hard choices like doubling taxes on their watch. In fact they all seem hell-bent on creating some kind of artificial economic stability at any cost.
• I also can’t imagine any politician actually admitting that an economic train-wreck is eminent because it could trigger an economic train-wreck.
• Judging from the noise the doomers are making about the eminent collapse, it might explain why the politicians are so hell-bent and spending our unborn descendants’ tax dollars today.

We should not let paranoia overcome us; but we should also listen to our built-in survival instincts.

Logic tells me that the economic numbers show that we may be moving onto thin ice again; but that we might cross this frozen lake without incident. But my instincts tell me I should tie a safety rope onto my belt in case I fall into the the sub-zero waters.

People with a clear minds find a certain level of preparation prudent and practical. The metaphor of tying on a safety rope while crossing a frozen lake helps me consider my next steps. Digging a bunker in my backyard and filling it with guns & ammo seems insane but building a rotatable inventory of non-perishable food seems much more reasonable.

No matter what kind of safety rope feels right for you, now seems like an increasingly bad time to ignore our instincts.

That’s right I’m party-free. Oh you didn’t know you could do that? I’m not sure you can in every state but I bet you can. In California all I had to do was write “decline to state” in the political party box.

I think this is an important step for everyone to do, conservative, liberal, or other. It seems like too many of us have taken sides against each other, dividing American citizens into easily controlled groups.

Does that sound crazy, easily controlled groups? Yeah maybe it is, but there are a growing number of us free agents. I just wish there were more true revolutionaries running for office. Who knows maybe if enough of us say enough-is-enough there will be.

If Israel believes the U.S. Government, who just assured Israel nuclear Iran not imminent, we may have just postponed the initiation of what looks like could become World War III.

It’s logical to assume that WWIII will happen someday, although there’s no telling what shape it will take. I suspect global nuclear war is no longer a likely possibility but I can definitely see someone setting off some smaller nukes. The hot spot this time is the Middle East, but this time the bigger problem is that it’s looking like everyone is taking sides.

• China, Russia, et al, want to trade with Iran have been essentially disregarding U.S. Sanctions against Iran.
• The U.S., Israel, the European Union, et al, want to block Iran from doing lots of things, like obtaining nuclear weapons.

Ignore the arguments for a moment and focus on the bigger problem… everyone is taking sides. This is a recipe for WWIII and with such a concentration of American military forces surrounding Iran, we should all be concerned that our foreign policies could be leading us toward war. A big war.

But for now it looks like the U.S. may be able to leverage a little bit of influence over Israel. I sure hope so because if Israel launches an attack against Iran and Iran fires back, we’re bound to be pulled into the mess, especially if China and Russia choose to jump in too.

Update: Iran begins loading fuel into their nuclear power plant.

On my blog, TinyHouseDesign.com, I use the tagline Less is More Sustainable. While this probably makes a lot of literal sense for a blog about tiny houses, but I hope people read more into this statement.

I also noticed that Seth Godin recently wrote a post called, Carrying capacity, that sends a similar message; although I suspect he’d say that there’s a sweet spot of sustainability for everything. If so I’d have to agree with him… I’d just add that the sweet spot doesn’t loose track of the human scale.

The only case where more is more sustainable happens when we’re taking about the diversity of all living things that make up the fabric of life on Earth. In other words, more diversity is more sustainable and less impact, risk, rapid growth is more sustainable. Here are a few examples:

Sustainable Ecosystem

Nature teaches us again and again that when a natural ecosystem is thrown out of balance the inevitable consequence is a rebalancing. This might come in the form of a collapse but  collapse can also be looked at as the end of one cycle and the beginning of another. Life is hard to keep down for long.

So if all lifeforms in an ecosystem stay in balance (zero rapid growth) then the system continues to thrive and provide support for every life form in the system.

Our Homes

The smaller our homes, the easier they are to heat, cool, repair, clean, purchase, furnish, and so on. In other words the smaller our homes, the fewer inputs they require to maintain which allows them to give us back time for ourselves.

Small homes also make us less susceptible to economic hard times because few inputs are needed naturally lowering risk. Living within our means and taking on less risk (debt, expenses, responsibilities) also adds to the sustainability of our lives.

Economic Systems

In business we see that rapid growth is only possible if the right inputs are added into the mix. This is usually capital and the right human resources. So one could surmise that more inputs mean more economic growth.This is true. The only trouble is when the inputs become unavailable or too costly growth slows, stops, or reverses.

An excellent example of this was clearly visible at the beginning of the last recession. Credit dried up and many businesses reliant on credit failed. Those left standing were those that ran their businesses on less risk or were big enough to be able to ride through the storm.

Governments

As governments grow past their ability to serve its citizens and maintain central control they fail. Decentralized control, like a healthy democracy, lasts much longer because the entire system is not reliant on the same central supports.

The Bottom Line

Slow steady growth and living simply is more sustainable because the margins of risk are wider. Zero growth is probably indefinitely sustainable.

For example, for the first 190,000 years[1] anatomically modern humans walked around on earth not getting much done; but I suspect they were in a near perfect balance with their surroundings like the other critters around them. Life was not luxurious or terribly comfortable for them but it was certainly sustainable, after all their descendants are still here.

For the last 10,000[2] most humans have been busy focused on progress. We’ve had a few setbacks as different civilizations collapsed under their own weight or corruption but for the most part we’ve been much more productive.

In the last 150 years, supercharged by fossil fuels, we’ve done amazing things and have been incredibly productive. In fact it seems like more people these days are now convinced that more is more sustainable because we’ve gotten so clever at making progress.

But if we take a big step back and look at the foundation we’ve built I think we’d see a delicate framework.

I’m not suggesting that we pull the plug on the whole deal and go back to living in caves for the next 190,000 years. I am suggesting that we get smarter and find a way to have our cake and eat it too. I think we are clever enough to find a sustainable way to keep most things running and moving smoothly but it’s going to take switching to a different pace and refocusing diversity and a sustainable scale.

I just finished reading World Made by Hand by James Howard Kunstler. It’s a story about what life might be like if we were to run out of gas and experience a global economic collapse. As a novel it’s captivating and an entertaining quick read if you can stomach the topic in general. As a prediction of the future World Made by Hand is just one of the infinite possible scenarios we might experience if we were to suddenly run out of oil.

But before you discard the idea of reading a book about the end of the world as we know it let me point out some of the values and lessons I found written between the lines that could be immediately applied to our lives today.

Self-Sufficiency – Corporations, government, international trade, global communications, and manufacturing in a World Made by Hand have shut down simply because the economic infrastructure, once powered by oil, has collapsed. Since the vast majority of people had built lives on a reliance on oil it’s no wonder the entire civilization was brought to its knees.

The lesson is that when we accept fewer single points of failure in our lives we reduce the risk of being forced to live through hard times. The recent severe recession has been a good example of how something simple, like job loss, can disrupt and destroy lives. When the vast majority of people accept the same single point of failure the problem amplifies. So then logically if an entire civilization was built on one of these fault lines it would tend to collapse when normalcy was unsettled.

When each of us works to become more self-sufficient we reduce the risk of life disrupting events for ourselves. As more people choose to reduce single points of failure the entire society becomes less likely to collapse.

Sustainability – The characters in World Made by Hand have been essentially forced by circumstance to adopt sustainable lifestyles. This is simply because sustainability really describes life sustaining choices and when people are faced with survival situations people either choose to live in balance with their natural resources or use them up and move on. If people choose to use them up they inevitably die because out-pacing natural resources simply eliminates life sustaining systems like water and food.

The lesson here is that if we choose to live more sustainably we increase the chances that humanity will persist. The problems we are beginning to experience are due to the fact that we’ve out-paced our natural resources and only through our cleverness and reliance of oil have been able to increase food production, hold disease at bay, and keep water clean enough to drink. But at some point it is conceivable that we will hit a wall or one of the single points of failure will break causing a collapse like Kunstler describes in this novel if not enough people come together and choose sustainability.

Community – Something similar to tribalism emerges in World Made by Hand. Kunstler paints a picture of emerging factions with strong leaders, some who strive for freedom and others who greedily seek power.

The lesson is that when people choose to embrace diversity and come together under commonalities the combined group becomes stronger and overall prosperity increases. When they choose to isolate themselves and cut off ties with others and focus on their differences they weaken and ultimately fail after a period of short-term prosperity.

Conclusion

Even if you have no concern or belief that we may be facing trouble when we run out oil this book is a good read and convincing illustration of how society works, albeit in a fictional story. It can also spark some introspection into personal values and lifestyle choices. I highly recommend reading World Made by Hand by James Howard Kunstler.

I’m relieved that the natural gas conflit is being resolved. But now that Europe and the markets have had a taste of the danger so much reliance on Russian gas brings… it looks like the Russians are going to be the ones paying. The market value of gas recently dropped and Europe is looking for alternative energy sources. It’s an interesting lesson… if you hold a trump card… sometimes it’s wiser to hold it and not play it… at least if you want to win the game… and not just one hand. Here’s the article that triggered that comment.

OK… I really don’t understand this… why does congress need to ‘pass a resolution‘ on the whole mess in Gaza? I assume that’s how they officially take a position on an issue. Ok fine I get it. I also wasn’t surprised that they voted to support Israel, our long time friend and ally, but why in the world did they have to say it like this!?

Recognizing Israel’s right to defend itself against attacks from Gaza, reaffirming the United States strong support for Israel, and supporting the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

Whereas Hamas was founded with the stated goal of destroying the State of Israel;

Whereas Hamas has been designated by the United States as a Foreign Terrorist Organization;

Whereas Hamas has refused to comply with the Quartet’s (the United States, the European Union, Russia, and the United Nations) requirements that Hamas recognize Israel’s right to exist, renounce violence, and agree to accept previous agreements between Israel and the Palestinians;

Continues…

I’m no foreign affairs expert by it sounds like the US Congress just voted 390 to 5 to support Israel stomping out Hamas by any force necessary… OK OK maybe it doesn’t say that exactly but I’ll bet you anything the people getting stomped out are now even more pissed off and now they are pissed at you and me too.

So… couldn’t they have said something more like they wanted to see and end to fighting and return to diplomatic talks? Peace man peace! Come on from the point of view from most Palestinians the treatment they’ve been getting for the last many decades has not been ideal. Showing soem compassion for both sides would still show support for Israel and really promote “the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.” This resolution sounds like approval for all out war against Hamas and probably anyone who sides with the Palestinians.

Does congress want to invite trouble on US soil? To me it sure sounds like Congress just put a giant bulls-eye on the back of the American flag. Thanks again you $#@&ing boneheads! Remind me to vote for someone new next time. Oh wait… no reminding needed. Fool me once, shame on me, fool me twice, shame on me again, fool me three times, call me a $#@&ing bonehead too.

I finally got to watch Obama’s speech. I missed it election night because I was busy putting Katie to bed. I’m so happy he won… not because he’s a Democrat… because he is the best person for the job.

Personally I’ve given up on both the Democratic and Republican parties. Neither represents my beliefs or seemingly best interests. I’m some kind of hybrid as I suspect is the truth for almost every American. But I can also see that Obama represents an opportunity to shift the balance of power back from the richest minority back to the citizens of the United States of America.

In fact that leads me to describe what I think is the real underlying problem with American politics. The general consensus in Washington DC seems to be that protecting large corporate profits is the top priority. I’m not talking most corporations, I’m talking about the 1% that controls the 90%. On the surface this seems to make sense but just below the surface we see that this is just trickle-down-economics all over again, and it doesn’t work to put that much economic power in the hands of so few people.

I think Obama sees this too. In his speech (below) he even points out that to fix wall street we must not forget about main street. I think Obama sees that by creating a balanced economic environment where everyone can succeed that we, as a whole, will succeed. Today under G.W. Bush and our current Congress we’ve been suffering under the delusion that by supporting large corporations through deregulation and other mechanisms we somehow make life better for everyone. This appeared true until the bubble burst. But the truth is, in the long run that policy only makes more money for the people at the top. The rest of us are now getting the shaft and the truth has been told.

This isn’t a partisan issue either. I’m pointing my finger at ALL of them, save a handful. Americans that still take sides and not looking at the issues for themselves are fooling themselves that somehow their party’s politicians are representing their best interests and positions. This isn’t a sporting event where you cheer for your team through tick and thin. This is freedom and democracy at stake. On the contrary… those citizens looking at the issues without bias and voting across party lines when appropriate are doing us all a favor. In this last election it appears the majority got smart… Thank God!

I hope that Obama turns out to be what he appears. He was not my first choice but at the end of the day on November 4, 2008 I definitely believe he was the best choice. I hope more conservatives begin to see it like I do and keep their eye on freedom, democracy, and and eye out for those representing corporate greed. They are everywhere in politics on both sides of the isle.

Now lets cross our fingers that the damage is not so deep it takes years to repair. I for one would love to see my home equity restored so I can again be free to choose where and how I live and leave the fear of foreclosure behind.

I found this interesting map on the Christian Science Monitor website this morning. They are using it to illustrate how the presidential race unfolds. I think the map is interesting because it places a general label on each county in America. In general I think labels are for boneheads but being a bonehead myself from time to time I decided to temporarily put on these 3D glasses and take a look. Give the map a try and see how these different groups are located geographically. Then look and see which candidate is visiting which locations. Interesting stuff… see the Patchwork Nation Map.

“America must commit to producing 100% of our electricity from cheap, clean renewable energy sources like solar and wind within 10 years.” – Al Gore

Remember this isn’t just government and corporations taking action… this is every one of us kicking our oil addiction. It won’t be easy but 10 years is doable if we each start planning today. Right?