Michael Janzen

I’ve said it before and I’ll keep saying it until the grid goes down… the perfect strategy for a post peak oil future is to simply choose to downsize consumption, grow increasingly self-reliant, and live more sustainably.

A recent report from the German Military, (Peak Oil – Implications Of Resource Scarcity On (National) Security from the Center for German Army Transformation, Group for “Future Studies” July 2010), summarizes the risks to civilization as humanity runs out of gas.

What is doesn’t say is how to avoid trouble. I suspect most people have trouble connecting the dots because they can’t imagine anything more normal than commuting by car, gas heat, hot running potable water 24/7, electricity oozing out of their sockets, and ample supplies of food on store shelves.

The core problem is that we’ve built a civilization on non-renewable cheap energy. So all those normal luxuries are normal when cheap energy is available. But like falling off a cliff, it’s not the fall that kills you – it’s the instant you stop falling that does you in.

We can wish for thorium parachutes but the truth is that relying on a dream is just not practical. Instead choose a well-tested safety harness.

The more of us that start moving in this direction the stronger our civilization becomes. If happy motoring continues, those of us living more simply and closer to the land will simply be leading happier less-dependent lives. If happy motoring ends we’ll be the best prepared for a oil-free future.

Living with less is the best peak oil hedge.

Below is a powerful video describing the horrific events and impacts being felt and see in the gulf. It also points to people like Sarah Palin think the solutions to our looming energy problems will come from more drilling. There is only one solution that will work long term, a culture-wide downsizing to sustainable levels.

I also listened to Kunstler’s podcast on the Deep Water Horizon catastrophe and wasn’t surprised to hear him suggesting that this event may be a wake up call for many Americans. A wake up call that we better kick this fossil fuel addiction quick. He tends to be a bit extreme but in this case I must agree.

There was another interesting post on the Oil Drum on a speech Obama needed to give. I don’t think the folks living in the gulf would disagree that now is the time to give a speech like this, but I suspect most Americans are not ready for a wake up call like this, although, it’s long overdue.

The trouble for most of us is the transition from our hedonistic lifestyle to a sustainable one is incredibly difficult. First we don’t usually think of ourselves as hedonists, living in the moment for pure pleasure. Maybe this disaster in the gulf will wake more people up to the idea that we must start living for the future, and make some strategic sacrifices today so life can continue thrive.

And finally, connected to the hedonist comment above, is an interesting lecture and video from RSA Animate explaining how our perception of time effects our values and more. I tend to always be future thinking, but can see how many of my day-to-day decisions are still driven by a desire to be comfortable in the present at the potential cost of the future. I need to work on that harder.

Before I share with you who is making the 25-year energy forecast illustrated in the following two diagrams, I’d like you to consider the plausibility of their prediction.

Basically they are suggesting that the supply and demand for energy are going to flatten out and perfectly support each other for the next 25 years. I’m sorry but that just seems like a totally impossible dream concocted to quell concerns of a future energy crisis. Here are the diagrams:

This forecast was produced by the U.S. Federal Government, the EIA (Energy Information Administration) specifically. Read more about this official prediction at The Oil Drum or from the horse’s mouth directly at the EIA website.

Now if the feds are selling this kind of snake oil it is definitely high time to invest in a few solar panels and learn to be a better gardener.

I just finished reading World Made by Hand by James Howard Kunstler. It’s a story about what life might be like if we were to run out of gas and experience a global economic collapse. As a novel it’s captivating and an entertaining quick read if you can stomach the topic in general. As a prediction of the future World Made by Hand is just one of the infinite possible scenarios we might experience if we were to suddenly run out of oil.

But before you discard the idea of reading a book about the end of the world as we know it let me point out some of the values and lessons I found written between the lines that could be immediately applied to our lives today.

Self-Sufficiency – Corporations, government, international trade, global communications, and manufacturing in a World Made by Hand have shut down simply because the economic infrastructure, once powered by oil, has collapsed. Since the vast majority of people had built lives on a reliance on oil it’s no wonder the entire civilization was brought to its knees.

The lesson is that when we accept fewer single points of failure in our lives we reduce the risk of being forced to live through hard times. The recent severe recession has been a good example of how something simple, like job loss, can disrupt and destroy lives. When the vast majority of people accept the same single point of failure the problem amplifies. So then logically if an entire civilization was built on one of these fault lines it would tend to collapse when normalcy was unsettled.

When each of us works to become more self-sufficient we reduce the risk of life disrupting events for ourselves. As more people choose to reduce single points of failure the entire society becomes less likely to collapse.

Sustainability – The characters in World Made by Hand have been essentially forced by circumstance to adopt sustainable lifestyles. This is simply because sustainability really describes life sustaining choices and when people are faced with survival situations people either choose to live in balance with their natural resources or use them up and move on. If people choose to use them up they inevitably die because out-pacing natural resources simply eliminates life sustaining systems like water and food.

The lesson here is that if we choose to live more sustainably we increase the chances that humanity will persist. The problems we are beginning to experience are due to the fact that we’ve out-paced our natural resources and only through our cleverness and reliance of oil have been able to increase food production, hold disease at bay, and keep water clean enough to drink. But at some point it is conceivable that we will hit a wall or one of the single points of failure will break causing a collapse like Kunstler describes in this novel if not enough people come together and choose sustainability.

Community – Something similar to tribalism emerges in World Made by Hand. Kunstler paints a picture of emerging factions with strong leaders, some who strive for freedom and others who greedily seek power.

The lesson is that when people choose to embrace diversity and come together under commonalities the combined group becomes stronger and overall prosperity increases. When they choose to isolate themselves and cut off ties with others and focus on their differences they weaken and ultimately fail after a period of short-term prosperity.

Conclusion

Even if you have no concern or belief that we may be facing trouble when we run out oil this book is a good read and convincing illustration of how society works, albeit in a fictional story. It can also spark some introspection into personal values and lifestyle choices. I highly recommend reading World Made by Hand by James Howard Kunstler.

I spent the better part of last week traveling to Los Angeles on business. Julia and Katie came with me so we decided to drive and turn it into a mini vacation. As we drove down I-5 and then onto the 405 in Los Angeles I could not help but think about what that place would be like after we run out of gas. I really try not to dwell in negative stuff like this but I think it’s important to understand the issue and then turn to positive actions.

I found this great documentary on YouTube produced by ABC Science. Most of the Peak Oil stuff you’ll find online is heavily biased with survivalism and end of the world fear mongering. The net effect of this fear-based communication strategy is that the general public turns a blind eye to the issue. This is a problem if Peak Oil is upon us because too many people will be caught off guard.

I’m not going to blab on about my personal take on Peak Oil. Instead I’m going to encourage you to watch this documentary. Below are all the segments.

Imagine a world connected by a decentralized power grid. If we began installing grid-tied solar panels on every roof now we might just win the race to peak oil too.

The infrastructure is already set-up except for a place to store the extra power… oh yeah electric cars! We could store all that spare electricity in our cars. Imagine an world with millions of electric cars running around. Things would be a lot quieter and yes we’d need to look both ways before we cross the street.

The truth is that electric cars and range-extended electric cars will be hitting the roads in 2010. Hopefully their arrival will coincide with an economic recovery so the companies building them will succeed.

I can dream right?

Consume This Movie preview below. This is a movie worth watching. All I’ve seen is the preview but looks promising. I also watched a documentary recently called A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash which is also worth watching. Of course you should also see the Story of Stuff if you haven’t already.