Michael Janzen

In the past few days there has been a lot of buzz in the press that oil tycoons think that the growing renewable segment will cause more economic trouble. They also point out that renewables will not be enough to replace oil and that there are still many untapped oil resources. For example:

• Oil Execs Chortle as Obama Admin Promotes Renewables – New York Times
• Oil King Warns Of ‘Green Bubble’ – Forbes
• Official: Saudis have plenty of oil capacity as demand returns – The Houston Chronicle

On this surface this might sound like good news mixed with a stern warning to our central government and overeager investors, and that we can all continue guzzling gas by the barrel and that business can continue as usual.

But these messages should also be seen as more evidence that there is some serious trouble headed our way and here’s why.

Warning of a ‘Green Bubble’ due to overzealous investments – The oil executives think there will be too much investment speculation, creating an artificial bubble that will burst before a stable balance can be found. Remember the dot-com boom and bust? They are talking about the same thing happening in the renewable energy technology field.

I think they could be right. Any time there is too much enthusiasm for a new profitable scheme, due dilligence is often thrown out of the window in hopes that short-term profits will present themselves before the boom goes bust. There will be some big winners in the renewable energy space but if investors like the American central government, Wall Street, or main street, do too much over speculation the bubble will bust before it is mature enough to continue and be bought up on the cheap by billionaire investors at pennies on the dollar.

But this doesn’t change the fact that we still need to fly like a bat out of an oil hell and get alternative energy solutions up and running even if they say we have plenty of oil… and here’s why…

Warning that renewables can’t replace oil –   If you follow Peak Oil discussions and analysis you’ll already know that everyone from the ultra-green to the dipped-in-oil agree on this point. Oil is a magical natural resource that is almost singularly responsible for human civilization’s meteoric advancements over the last 150 years. There is also no replacement for oil and even when you combine all the other alternative energy sources the numbers still don’t add up.

So in other words the oil barrons are saying we’re screwed either way… oh and to keep drinking their crude. Thanks but no thanks.

This is an excellent video of a presentation by Jeff Rubin at The Business of Climate Change Conference 2009. I’m not sure if I agree with his predictions but it is concerning to hear someone with his credible references speaking so bluntly about how the looming transition off oil is going to affect how we live. Here’s a quote from the YouTube video description.

“Jeff Rubin, the former Chief Economist of CIBC World Markets and the author of Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller built his reputation as one of Canada’s top economists based on a number of successful predictions including the housing bust of the early 90s and the rise of oil prices. In his recent book, Mr. Rubin predicts $225 per barrel oil by 2012 and with it the end of globalization, a movement towards local sourcing and a need for massive scaling up of energy efficiency.”

This is spooky and telling. I just read more evidence that the U.S. Military is moving toward renewable energy sources and away from fossil fuels. That’s all nice and green but if the government thinks that the military needs to move in this direction for what could be national security reasons… shouldn’t they come out with it and help point all public policy in this direction? In other words if the military is strategically prepping for running out of oil shouldn’t our entire civilization jump on the bandwagon? Here’s the article that sparked this short post.

U.S. Army’s New Research Center Puts Fossil Fuels on Notice

I spent the better part of last week traveling to Los Angeles on business. Julia and Katie came with me so we decided to drive and turn it into a mini vacation. As we drove down I-5 and then onto the 405 in Los Angeles I could not help but think about what that place would be like after we run out of gas. I really try not to dwell in negative stuff like this but I think it’s important to understand the issue and then turn to positive actions.

I found this great documentary on YouTube produced by ABC Science. Most of the Peak Oil stuff you’ll find online is heavily biased with survivalism and end of the world fear mongering. The net effect of this fear-based communication strategy is that the general public turns a blind eye to the issue. This is a problem if Peak Oil is upon us because too many people will be caught off guard.

I’m not going to blab on about my personal take on Peak Oil. Instead I’m going to encourage you to watch this documentary. Below are all the segments.